Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | WIN -550 NCCU +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +2 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -11.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (+5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -8.3 (-6.3) | 143.6 (+8.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -8.2 (-6.2) | 146.1 (+5.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -8.5 (-6.5) | 144.3 (+7.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -9.2 (-7.2) | 143.7 (+8.3) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 6-8 |
| Home | 16-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.3 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 78.8 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#171) | -4.4 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#209) | -2.12 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#196) | -2.75 (#320) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#163) | 0.400 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 25.3% | 26.2% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 27.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.58 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 39.3% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 24.2% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 54.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 33.8% |
Game Analysis
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