Betting Lines
| Spread | RGV -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | SELA +142 RGV -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SELA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RGV +21 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | RGV -5.7 (-15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.7 (+37.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RGV -5.4 (-15.6) | 132.8 (+38.2) | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RGV -4.3 (-16.7) | 133.6 (+37.4) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RGV -5.5 (-15.5) | 131.8 (+39.2) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RGV -5.0 (-16.0) | 133.5 (+37.5) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2026 | RGV 68 – 65 SELA |
| Mar 4, 2025 | RGV 77 – 76 SELA |
| Jan 7, 2025 | SELA 79 – 75 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SELA | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 6-16 | 14-8 |
| Home | 5-7 | 10-5 |
| Away | 2-15 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#271) | 1.7 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.68 (#314) | -0.19 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.96 (#306) | 0.05 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#330) | 0.500 (#181) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SELA | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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