Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | HAW -260 WEB +215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +5 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -15.8 (-10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (-8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -13.5 (-8.5) | 141.4 (-0.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -8.8 (-3.8) | 134.9 (+6.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -15.1 (-10.1) | 137.5 (+3.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -15.4 (-10.4) | 142.0 (-1.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 12-22 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-7 | 5-10 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#199) | -10.1 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#156) | -0.63 (#233) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#167) | -0.89 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#194) | 0.562 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.4% | 30.5% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 22.2% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 35.2% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 34.6% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.2% | 61.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.2% | 12.4% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.1% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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