Betting Lines
| Spread | BRY -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | DEL +140 BRY -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRY +1 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | BRY -2.4 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (+15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEL -0.7 (-1.7) | 150.9 (+18.1) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRY -0.8 (-0.2) | 151.0 (+18.0) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEL -0.2 (-1.2) | 147.2 (+21.8) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEL -0.2 (-1.2) | 149.1 (+19.9) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEL | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-20 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 14-2 |
| Home | 8-7 | 12-3 |
| Away | 3-11 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#264) | 4.6 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#161) | 0.41 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#190) | 0.31 (#166) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#133) | 0.545 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEL | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 38.8% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 47.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 17.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.66 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 39.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 30.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 61.7% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 35.0% |
Game Analysis
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