Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -32.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +48 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | UK -25.6 (+22.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.0 (+30.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -17.2 (+30.8) | 134.5 (+31.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -14.9 (+33.1) | 136.7 (+29.3) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-4 | 13-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#94) | -5.0 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#74) | 0.34 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#78) | 0.34 (#137) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 34.5% |
| 3PT% | 25.9% | 22.6% |
| REB / G | 51.0 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 16.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 40.9% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 37.5% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 38.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 34.0% | 41.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 28.3% |
| DRB% | 87.8% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 54.3% |
Game Analysis
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