Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | UL -170 SELA +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +6 | 110 | Won |
| Massey | UL -24.3 (-18.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (-35.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -9.1 (-3.1) | 139.5 (-29.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -8.3 (-2.3) | 141.3 (-31.3) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 12, 2024 | UL 68 – 61 SELA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-16 |
| Home | 7-8 | 5-7 |
| Away | 3-13 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#101) | -4.0 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#201) | -0.34 (#216) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#180) | -0.51 (#218) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 34.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 26.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 40.6% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 8.5% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.9% | 58.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 55.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 41.3% | 46.3% |
Game Analysis
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