Betting Lines
| Spread | KU -24.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | KU -20000 UNCW +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KU +18 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | KU -17.7 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KU -16.3 (+1.7) | 152.4 (-2.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KU -13.9 (+4.1) | 151.0 (-1.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KU -16.3 (+1.7) | 155.8 (-5.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KU -17.6 (+0.4) | 151.3 (-1.3) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KU | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-3 |
| Away | 4-8 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 12.6 (#21) | 1.8 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#31) | 1.84 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.97 (#44) | 2.36 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.708 (#14) | 0.612 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KU | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.8% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 22.7% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.19 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 12.5% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 65.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 77.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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