Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -25.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | TEX -100000 LAF +4000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +37 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | TEX -10.0 (+27.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (+7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -0.6 (+36.4) | 139.5 (+17.5) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -0.6 (+36.4) | 142.2 (+14.8) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-5 | 6-10 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.7 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#239) | 3.0 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#265) | -0.34 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#269) | -0.43 (#174) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 32.2% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 18.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.38 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 36.4% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 23.6% | 12.5% |
| ORB% | 40.9% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 10.1% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 60.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 42.3% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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