Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | VT +120 PROV -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +6 | 208 | Won |
| Massey | VT -7.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.1 (+48.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -3.3 (+2.7) | 148.6 (+59.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -3.8 (+2.2) | 149.4 (+58.6) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-6 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 85.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 84.0 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#69) | -2.6 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#112) | 0.34 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#67) | 0.44 (#115) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 54.0 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 18.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.71 | 1.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 9.0% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 40.9% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 32.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.1% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 79.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.1% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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