Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | MARQ +135 IU -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +23 | 177 | Lost |
| Massey | IU -9.2 (-13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (+21.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IU -4.2 (-18.8) | 142.7 (+34.3) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -4.9 (-18.1) | 145.4 (+31.6) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | IU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 9-11 |
| Home | 10-7 | 14-4 |
| Away | 2-10 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 78.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#137) | 10.9 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#101) | 0.42 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#107) | 0.67 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#181) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | IU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 62.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 41.7% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 2.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 70.7% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 33.6% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.7% | 38.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 92.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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