Betting Lines
| Spread | UCLA -30.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCLA +21 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | UCLA -16.7 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -14.8 (+6.2) | 136.4 (+8.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCLA -11.3 (+9.7) | 135.9 (+9.1) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCLA | WGA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 17-1 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-5 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 80.5 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#221) | -5.2 (#272) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#111) | -0.34 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#115) | -0.50 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#124) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCLA | WGA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 29.2% |
| 3PT% | 27.7% | 16.7% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 32.3% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 12.9% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 62.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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