Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | ISU -240 MSST +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +16 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -10.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.3 (+25.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -6.9 (+9.1) | 137.9 (+38.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -5.6 (+10.4) | 142.5 (+33.5) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2021 | MSST 95 – 56 ISU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 5-13 |
| Home | 16-1 | 8-8 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.0 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 81.8 |
| Massey | 14.1 (#11) | 3.4 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#60) | 0.41 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#56) | 0.61 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#80) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.4% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 41.4% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 53.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 19.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.81 | 2.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 62.4% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 9.9% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 43.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.6% | 42.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.7% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 81.9% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 10.8% |
Game Analysis
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