Betting Lines
| Spread | HALL -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | HALL -1600 FAIR +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HALL +23 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | FAIR -6.5 (+29.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.8 (+14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -2.6 (+25.6) | 127.0 (+14.0) | 33% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -5.0 (+28.0) | 120.3 (+20.7) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -4.6 (+27.6) | 126.1 (+14.9) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -3.8 (+26.8) | 127.2 (+13.8) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HALL | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-5 | 12-4 |
| Away | 6-6 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#189) | 19.4 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#90) | 2.66 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#86) | 4.17 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#80) | 0.758 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HALL | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 38.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 46.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.5 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 43.4% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 45.6% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 39.6% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.5% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 64.7% | 81.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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