Betting Lines
| Spread | KU -25.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | KU -20000 AMCC +3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KU +31 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | KU -23.3 (+7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (-21.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KU -19.4 (+11.6) | 140.2 (-17.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KU -15.8 (+15.2) | 141.7 (-18.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KU -20.7 (+10.3) | 139.9 (-16.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KU -21.2 (+9.8) | 139.8 (-16.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KU | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-9 |
| Home | 13-2 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#19) | 0.5 (#164) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#163) | -0.82 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#161) | -1.08 (#275) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#106) | 0.365 (#271) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KU | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.9% | 35.5% |
| 3PT% | 42.3% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 15.5 |
| AST / TO | 2.00 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.3% | 42.3% |
| TOV% | 12.5% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 49.1% |
Game Analysis
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