Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Over |
| Money | SMU -750 MUR +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +11 | 193 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -4.6 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (+39.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -3.4 (+7.6) | 147.0 (+46.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -4.4 (+6.6) | 150.4 (+42.6) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -3.5 (+7.5) | 146.3 (+46.7) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2023 | SMU 92 – 65 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-8 |
| Home | 15-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.1 | 83.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 80.2 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#165) | 8.5 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#102) | 1.06 (#71) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#93) | 1.49 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#131) | 0.438 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 2.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 12.2% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 51.4% | 34.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.7% | 42.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 25.4% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.0% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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