Betting Lines
| Spread | BOIS -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Under |
| Money | BOIS -2000 RGV +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BOIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BOIS +20 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | BOIS -6.9 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 172.4 (-22.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BOIS -5.4 (+14.6) | 155.5 (-5.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BOIS -5.2 (+14.8) | 156.7 (-6.7) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BOIS | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 14-8 |
| Home | 12-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 6-5 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#107) | 9.5 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#137) | 1.22 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#130) | 1.74 (#60) |
| RPI | — | 0.613 (#94) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BOIS | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 54.2% | 49.6% |
| 3PT% | 45.5% | 49.1% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.89 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 62.7% | 59.5% |
| TOV% | 12.3% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 36.7% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 45.8% | 9.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.5% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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