Betting Lines
| Spread | MERC -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | CAN +105 MERC -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAN +3 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | MERC -4.2 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (-28.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MERC -7.9 (+10.9) | 133.2 (-20.2) | 28% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MERC -6.3 (+9.3) | 135.1 (-22.1) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MERC -4.5 (+7.5) | 134.1 (-21.1) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MERC -4.4 (+7.4) | 134.8 (-21.8) | 25% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 14, 2024 | MERC 62 – 52 CAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAN | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-8 | 12-3 |
| Away | 3-13 | 5-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.2 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#324) | 5.5 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#230) | 1.63 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#231) | 2.45 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#152) | 0.675 (#68) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAN | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 39.5% | 22.2% |
| REB / G | 26.5 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 41.2% |
| TOV% | 23.8% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 16.8% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.7% | 43.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 9.4% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 53.0% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.3% | 41.9% |
Game Analysis
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