Betting Lines
| Spread | UTU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | UTU -145 MAN +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +4 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | UTU -3.2 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 175.4 (-21.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTU -2.5 (-6.5) | 153.5 (+0.5) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTU -2.9 (-6.9) | 155.0 (-1.0) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTU -2.8 (-6.8) | 151.6 (+2.4) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTU | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 6-10 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 79.6 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#190) | -4.0 (#248) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#119) | -0.22 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#126) | -0.21 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#142) | 0.750 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTU | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 47.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 47.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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