Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | NEV -800 SIU +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +5 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -11.3 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (+16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -11.3 (-6.3) | 144.6 (+22.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -8.2 (-3.2) | 146.2 (+20.8) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-10 |
| Home | 17-2 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-9 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#147) | 1.1 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#112) | 0.19 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#122) | 0.21 (#161) |
| RPI | — | 0.500 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 65.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 47.0 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 17.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 69.7% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 43.8% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 39.5% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 79.7% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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