Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -290 BYU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +2 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -0.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.9 (+21.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -0.4 (+1.6) | 138.0 (+32.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -0.4 (+1.6) | 142.3 (+27.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -0.4 (+1.6) | 142.6 (+27.4) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BYU -0.4 (+2.4) | 142.9 (+27.1) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-6 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 9-3 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 83.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 75.4 |
| Massey | 14.4 (#18) | 13.6 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#44) | 1.66 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.21 (#26) | 2.28 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.632 (#56) | 0.574 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 55.6% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 41.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 2.14 | 2.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 63.2% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 8.4% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.7% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 79.3% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 12.4% |
Game Analysis
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