Betting Lines
| Spread | NHVN -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | NHVN -130 DSU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NHVN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NHVN +13 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | DSU -0.9 (+13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.3 (-10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DSU -2.3 (+15.3) | 125.9 (-8.9) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DSU -1.1 (+14.1) | 125.0 (-8.0) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DSU -1.8 (+14.8) | 127.3 (-10.3) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DSU -1.3 (+14.3) | 129.9 (-12.9) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NHVN | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 2-12 |
| Home | 9-6 | 5-7 |
| Away | 5-11 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 0-3 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.5 | 59.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -15.5 (#356) | -4.5 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#280) | -0.84 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#289) | -1.13 (#258) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#172) | 0.486 (#201) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NHVN | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 34.1% |
| 3PT% | 26.1% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 27.8 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.55 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 38.4% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 20.6% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 16.2% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 63.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 77.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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