Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | LAS +320 PSU -425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +14 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | PSU -14.9 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (+4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -12.8 (-1.2) | 138.4 (+13.6) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -10.1 (-3.9) | 140.5 (+11.5) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -10.9 (-3.1) | 143.6 (+8.4) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -9.9 (-4.1) | 139.2 (+12.8) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAS | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 3-17 |
| Home | 8-6 | 9-8 |
| Away | 1-13 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 79.3 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#218) | 12.9 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#167) | 2.69 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#168) | 4.06 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#215) | 0.682 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAS | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 50.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 11.1% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 39.6% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 15.4% |
Game Analysis
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