Betting Lines
| Spread | DEN -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | DEN -190 UTSA +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTSA +5 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | DEN -26.5 (-31.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.3 (+5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -16.0 (-21.0) | 149.2 (+13.8) | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEN -12.5 (-17.5) | 146.8 (+16.2) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -15.6 (-20.6) | 146.3 (+16.7) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -17.2 (-22.2) | 147.2 (+15.8) | 87% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 17, 2021 | UTSA 78 – 64 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 5-25 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 1-17 |
| Home | 9-5 | 2-12 |
| Away | 6-11 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.3 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.0 | 82.9 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#85) | -11.3 (#343) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#190) | -3.45 (#360) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#212) | -5.92 (#362) |
| RPI | 0.412 (#273) | 0.083 (#360) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 33.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 25.5% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 38.5% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 61.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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