Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -29.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | LOU -20000 BELL +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +32 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -22.3 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.8 (+28.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -21.5 (+10.5) | 139.3 (+28.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -18.2 (+13.8) | 144.4 (+23.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -23.8 (+8.2) | 139.0 (+29.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -25.1 (+6.9) | 139.0 (+29.0) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2023 | LOU 73 – 68 BELL |
| Nov 10, 2022 | BELL 67 – 66 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 5-26 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 2-16 |
| Home | 14-3 | 5-10 |
| Away | 9-2 | 0-16 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 81.3 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#68) | -8.4 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#220) | -4.00 (#363) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#208) | -5.36 (#361) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#227) | 0.329 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.6% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.60 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 29.3% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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