Betting Lines
| Spread | TULN -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | TULN -1400 BCU +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TULN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TULN +15 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | TULN -10.6 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (-12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TULN -11.1 (+3.9) | 140.4 (-11.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TULN -11.1 (+3.9) | 141.0 (-12.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TULN -12.2 (+2.8) | 142.0 (-13.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TULN -12.4 (+2.6) | 141.2 (-12.2) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TULN | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-3 | 8-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#139) | -2.0 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#152) | -0.69 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#159) | -0.88 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#170) | 0.428 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TULN | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 39.7% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.4% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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