Betting Lines
| Spread | MAN -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | MAN -3000 MVSU +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +7 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | MAN -13.3 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.4 (-7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MAN -10.0 (-3.0) | 151.4 (+1.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MAN -8.5 (-1.5) | 148.5 (+4.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MAN -9.2 (-2.2) | 149.7 (+3.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MAN -10.7 (-3.7) | 150.5 (+2.5) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MAN | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 3-30 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 2-16 |
| Home | 7-7 | 2-9 |
| Away | 3-12 | 1-18 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.6 | 83.7 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#277) | -19.2 (#363) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#141) | -2.12 (#332) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#140) | -3.13 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#104) | 0.335 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MAN | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 35.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 26.3% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 39.6% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 32.7% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 11.6% |
| DRB% | 54.8% | 61.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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