Betting Lines
| Spread | HAMP -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | HAMP -200 HC +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAMP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HC +6 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | HAMP -6.2 (-12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (-22.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAMP -5.4 (-11.4) | 137.7 (-9.7) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAMP -4.7 (-10.7) | 141.0 (-13.0) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HAMP -4.0 (-10.0) | 143.8 (-15.8) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAMP -3.9 (-9.9) | 142.1 (-14.1) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAMP | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-2 | 6-8 |
| Away | 2-12 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#216) | -8.7 (#310) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#196) | -1.26 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#203) | -1.83 (#280) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#235) | 0.458 (#231) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAMP | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.8% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 27.0% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 15.7 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.4% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 37.3% | 18.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.2% | 61.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 10.1% |
| DRB% | 57.9% | 79.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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