Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | CLE +290 RAD -380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLE +5 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | RAD -1.3 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 175.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RAD -0.2 (+5.2) | 154.3 (+14.7) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -1.7 (+6.7) | 155.0 (+14.0) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | RAD -1.5 (+6.5) | 155.0 (+14.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RAD -1.5 (+6.5) | 154.6 (+14.4) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLE | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 9-7 |
| Home | 7-8 | 12-5 |
| Away | 3-13 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 88.6 | 80.8 |
| Massey | -9.3 (#322) | -8.1 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.42 (#343) | -1.97 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.49 (#342) | -3.73 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.382 (#302) | 0.349 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLE | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 24.7% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 40.2% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.4% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.1% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 64.4% | 60.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.3% | 34.4% |
Game Analysis
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