Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | PITT -2500 BUCK +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +34 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -9.7 (+24.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.0 (-4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -10.4 (+23.6) | 133.8 (+0.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -8.0 (+26.0) | 134.0 (-0.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -8.9 (+25.1) | 134.4 (-0.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -8.7 (+25.3) | 134.7 (-0.7) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 6-12 |
| Home | 8-10 | 6-8 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#127) | 0.1 (#172) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#84) | -0.30 (#207) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#73) | -0.52 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.674 (#35) | 0.321 (#345) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.7% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.1% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 30.7% |
Game Analysis
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