Betting Lines
| Spread | NU -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | NU -1400 MTST +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +3 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | NU -15.1 (-12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NU -16.6 (-13.6) | 139.6 (+1.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NU -15.8 (-12.8) | 137.3 (+3.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NU -16.8 (-13.8) | 139.9 (+1.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NU -18.3 (-15.3) | 139.1 (+1.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#70) | -1.3 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#117) | -1.07 (#269) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#108) | -1.00 (#241) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#80) | 0.446 (#248) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 42.8% |
Game Analysis
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