Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -34.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +43 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -37.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.1 (-30.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -25.6 (+17.4) | 150.0 (-25.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -24.4 (+18.6) | 146.5 (-21.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -33.5 (+9.5) | 148.9 (-23.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -35.8 (+7.2) | 148.8 (-23.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 3-17 |
| Home | 13-2 | 3-11 |
| Away | 7-2 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L15 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 24.8 (#1) | -5.8 (#281) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.09 (#5) | -2.63 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.79 (#4) | -3.60 (#336) |
| RPI | 0.861 (#1) | 0.354 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.1% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 42.2 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.25 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.9% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 12.3% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 57.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 77.9% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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