Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -21.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | BRAD -7500 UML +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +10 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -28.2 (-18.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.6 (+10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -20.5 (-10.5) | 148.3 (+15.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -20.3 (-10.3) | 144.8 (+19.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -21.9 (-11.9) | 144.4 (+19.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -23.0 (-13.0) | 144.4 (+19.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 9-7 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-14 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#148) | -19.8 (#365) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#254) | -2.89 (#354) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#249) | -4.47 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#179) | 0.443 (#253) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 26.5% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 27.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 43.5% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 33.2% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 61.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.1% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 55.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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