Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | PUR -1600 MEM +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +9 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -12.7 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -8.9 (+0.1) | 149.0 (+2.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -9.1 (-0.1) | 146.4 (+4.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -9.3 (-0.3) | 149.8 (+1.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -9.6 (-0.6) | 149.0 (+2.0) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-9 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-5 | 10-6 |
| Away | 8-3 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 76.7 |
| Massey | 10.4 (#43) | -2.2 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.47 (#3) | -1.59 (#297) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.78 (#3) | -2.59 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.677 (#21) | 0.517 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 40.7% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 43.5 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 15.2 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 2.29 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.9% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 42.7% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.7% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.4% | 33.9% |
Game Analysis
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