Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | TTU -600 WAKE +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +1 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -6.8 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.6 (+8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -4.9 (-3.9) | 151.9 (+15.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -3.7 (-2.7) | 149.3 (+17.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -4.0 (-3.0) | 150.7 (+16.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -4.2 (-3.2) | 153.1 (+13.9) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-2 | 13-7 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.3 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 12.9 (#29) | 6.0 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#99) | 0.61 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#71) | 1.35 (#120) |
| RPI | 0.609 (#60) | 0.502 (#182) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 42.8 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 15.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.77 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 40.3% | 37.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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