Betting Lines
| Spread | UIW -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | UIW -500 USI +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIW +6 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | UIW -10.1 (-4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (+26.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIW -6.4 (-0.4) | 137.4 (+30.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIW -6.9 (-0.9) | 134.2 (+33.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UIW -7.7 (-1.7) | 136.2 (+31.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIW -7.0 (-1.0) | 135.0 (+33.0) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIW | USI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 7-15 | 4-16 |
| Home | 9-6 | 3-10 |
| Away | 2-12 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 74.3 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#183) | -10.2 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#217) | -3.49 (#361) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#203) | -5.24 (#361) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#75) | 0.249 (#361) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIW | USI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 33.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 24.4% |
| REB / G | 24.5 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.5% | 38.3% |
| TOV% | 10.6% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 18.8% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 16.0% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.4% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 63.0% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 44.6% | 37.3% |
Game Analysis
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