Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | UIC +400 HPU -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +10 | 170 | Lost |
| Massey | HPU -8.2 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (+16.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -4.3 (-5.7) | 146.0 (+24.0) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -5.8 (-4.2) | 144.1 (+25.9) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -4.7 (-5.3) | 146.3 (+23.7) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -3.4 (-6.6) | 147.8 (+22.2) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIC | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 31-5 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 15-1 |
| Home | 9-5 | 17-1 |
| Away | 7-9 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 86.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 72.8 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#145) | 10.0 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#133) | 0.24 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#133) | 0.09 (#172) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#219) | 0.489 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIC | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 50.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 2.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 56.9% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 10.5% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 42.9% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 23.8% |
| DRB% | 59.0% | 64.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 30.2% |
Game Analysis
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