Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | UNT -2500 CARK +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +18 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -21.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -18.9 (-0.9) | 130.1 (-0.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -16.1 (+1.9) | 132.0 (-2.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -16.8 (+1.2) | 130.1 (-0.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -17.1 (+0.9) | 130.0 (+0.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 15-3 |
| Home | 12-5 | 14-1 |
| Away | 5-7 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 79.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 76.0 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#210) | -16.8 (#359) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#177) | -3.04 (#356) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#189) | -5.04 (#358) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#161) | 0.440 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.6% | 34.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 19.6% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 38.9% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 12.1% |
| DRB% | 63.1% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 40.1% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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