Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Over |
| Money | KSU +115 MSST -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KSU +21 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | KSU -4.2 (+16.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.9 (+4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KSU -1.6 (+19.4) | 156.0 (+19.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KSU -2.8 (+18.2) | 157.0 (+18.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KSU -3.3 (+17.7) | 157.0 (+18.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KSU -3.0 (+18.0) | 155.4 (+19.6) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KSU | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-8 | 8-8 |
| Away | 1-10 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.6 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.8 | 81.8 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#88) | 1.9 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.65 (#16) | -0.34 (#204) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.55 (#13) | -0.83 (#217) |
| RPI | 0.663 (#22) | 0.477 (#210) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KSU | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 54.7% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 45.7% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 44.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 63.2% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 40.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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