I'm not a coward; I've just never been tested. "The Impression That I Get" - The Mighty Mighty Bosstones
Stan Sheriff Center · November 21, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread HAW -1.5 Away covered
O/U 143.5 Over
Money HAW -130 / ASU +110
Model Predictions
Spread Total HAW win
Actual ASU +7 159 Lost
Massey HAW -11.6 (-18.6) — —
Massey Totals — 136.4 (+22.6) —
Bradley-Terry — — 93% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 97% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ HAW -6.8 (-13.8) 137.5 (+21.5) 76% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML HAW -11.0 (-18.0) 136.2 (+22.8) 82% ✗
Baseline ML HAW -11.8 (-18.8) 136.4 (+22.6) 82% ✗
Baseline Plus ML HAW -10.9 (-17.9) 140.4 (+18.6) 81% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings HAW ASU
Overall 24-9 17-16
Conference 14-6 7-11
Home 16-3 10-5
Away 6-5 2-9
Neutral 2-1 5-2
Last 5 4-1 3-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 78.7 76.3
Avg Pts Against 71.2 78.3
Massey 6.1 (#85) 0.8 (#163)
Bradley-Terry 1.46 (#83) 0.16 (#172)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.53 (#68) 0.54 (#161)
RPI 0.545 (#131) 0.443 (#254)
Shooting & Four Factors HAW ASU
FG% 45.1% 44.5%
3PT% 32.0% 33.3%
REB / G 42.0 37.0
OREB / G 12.6 10.5
AST / TO 0.93 1.48
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.7% 51.0%
TOV% 19.6% 14.9%
ORB% 38.0% 27.8%
FT Rate 38.8% 21.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 42.2% 45.0%
Opp TOV% 19.3% 22.3%
DRB% 76.6% 69.7%
Opp FT Rate 24.8% 26.4%

Game Analysis

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