Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | PUR -165 TTU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +30 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -0.1 (+29.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.3 (-10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -0.1 (+30.1) | 148.4 (-6.4) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -1.0 (+29.0) | 145.4 (-3.4) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -0.9 (+29.1) | 147.5 (-5.5) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -0.7 (+29.3) | 146.8 (-4.8) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-9 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-5 | 14-2 |
| Away | 8-3 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 73.1 |
| Massey | 11.9 (#36) | 11.9 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.29 (#2) | 1.47 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 7.20 (#1) | 2.25 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.670 (#21) | 0.637 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 39.9% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 42.2 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 16.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.17 | 1.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 42.6% | 40.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.5% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.