Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | TULN +380 USU -550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TULN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +21 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -12.4 (-8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (+25.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -12.0 (-9.0) | 140.0 (+31.0) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -7.8 (-13.2) | 140.2 (+30.8) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -8.0 (-13.0) | 141.9 (+29.1) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -8.7 (-12.3) | 140.8 (+30.2) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TULN | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 29-7 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 15-5 |
| Home | 10-8 | 14-1 |
| Away | 6-4 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.7 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#275) | 6.4 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#175) | 1.66 (#70) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#207) | 2.16 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#170) | 0.597 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TULN | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 25.4% |
| REB / G | 27.8 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 5.0 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 17.4% | 38.1% |
| FT Rate | 43.9% | 37.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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