Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | UVA -215 NU +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +5 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | NU -1.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (+11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NU -0.0 (+5.0) | 140.6 (+20.4) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -0.1 (+4.9) | 140.9 (+20.1) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NU -0.5 (+5.5) | 141.2 (+19.8) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -0.5 (+4.5) | 140.3 (+20.7) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-6 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 5-15 |
| Home | 16-1 | 9-8 |
| Away | 8-2 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 12.9 (#27) | 14.0 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.72 (#12) | 2.23 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.80 (#11) | 2.78 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#82) | 0.635 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | NU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 52.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 46.0 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 17.5 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.90 | 2.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.1% | 58.7% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 48.3% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.7% | 42.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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