Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | UNM +240 MSST -290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +2 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -4.8 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (+6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -3.6 (-1.6) | 146.5 (+11.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -3.2 (-1.2) | 142.3 (+15.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -3.1 (-1.1) | 144.5 (+13.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -3.7 (-1.7) | 147.5 (+10.5) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 17-3 | 8-8 |
| Away | 7-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 81.8 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#118) | -1.3 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#178) | -0.47 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#169) | -0.75 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#188) | 0.501 (#178) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 41.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 36.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.