Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | MEM +120 WAKE -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +1 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | WAKE -8.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.5 (-23.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -5.3 (+4.3) | 152.8 (-15.8) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -7.3 (+6.3) | 148.3 (-11.3) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -6.7 (+5.7) | 150.7 (-13.7) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -6.6 (+5.6) | 153.0 (-16.0) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-6 | 13-7 |
| Away | 3-10 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 76.9 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#192) | 7.0 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.30 (#281) | -0.14 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.14 (#283) | 0.38 (#163) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#99) | 0.483 (#201) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 14.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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