Betting Lines
| Spread | ORST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | ORST -290 EVAN +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EVAN +4 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | ORST -6.5 (-10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (-11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORST -6.9 (-10.9) | 137.1 (+4.9) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORST -5.6 (-9.6) | 140.1 (+1.9) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ORST -5.5 (-9.5) | 141.7 (+0.3) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORST -3.8 (-7.8) | 138.5 (+3.5) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 3-17 |
| Home | 12-5 | 5-10 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 78.3 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#234) | -10.0 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#83) | -3.33 (#360) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#92) | -4.95 (#357) |
| RPI | 0.698 (#11) | 0.318 (#350) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 23.9% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 29.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 42.3% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 60.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 63.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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