Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 172.5 Under |
| Money | SMU -2000 ARST +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +31 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -17.6 (+13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.4 (-1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -13.4 (+17.6) | 159.6 (+9.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -16.5 (+14.5) | 158.7 (+10.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -17.7 (+13.3) | 157.8 (+11.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -18.5 (+12.5) | 159.1 (+9.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-3 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.1 | 81.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 78.0 |
| Massey | 10.5 (#47) | -0.8 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#28) | 0.78 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.39 (#37) | 0.72 (#145) |
| RPI | 0.655 (#28) | 0.537 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.3% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 35.9% | 34.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 31.8% |
Game Analysis
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