Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | HOW -200 NIA +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +10 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | NIA -6.7 (+16.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.8 (+24.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIA -3.6 (+13.6) | 125.0 (+25.0) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -3.7 (+13.7) | 126.0 (+24.0) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -4.4 (+14.4) | 129.4 (+20.6) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIA -4.8 (+14.8) | 127.9 (+22.1) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 8-22 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 5-15 |
| Home | 11-4 | 6-7 |
| Away | 7-6 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -9.7 (#321) | -2.9 (#225) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.16 (#325) | -0.57 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.13 (#322) | -1.29 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.334 (#345) | 0.384 (#316) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 20.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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