Betting Lines
| Spread | UIC -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | UIC -800 USI +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIC +11 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | UIC -12.1 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIC -9.0 (+2.0) | 147.9 (+9.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIC -8.6 (+2.4) | 143.3 (+13.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UIC -8.4 (+2.6) | 145.3 (+11.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIC -8.9 (+2.1) | 148.8 (+8.2) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIC | USI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 4-16 |
| Home | 9-5 | 3-10 |
| Away | 7-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#161) | -11.3 (#338) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#205) | -3.51 (#361) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#228) | -5.06 (#359) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#221) | 0.255 (#360) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIC | USI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 37.0% |
| 3PT% | 27.6% | 24.3% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 41.8% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 38.5% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 39.1% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 60.4% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.2% | 36.1% |
Game Analysis
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