Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | NEV -215 UCSB +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +13 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -5.1 (+7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 172.0 (-31.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -3.3 (+9.7) | 155.5 (-14.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -4.9 (+8.1) | 146.4 (-5.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -3.8 (+9.2) | 156.0 (-15.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -3.5 (+9.5) | 156.8 (-15.8) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 17-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-9 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#180) | 0.6 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#182) | 1.07 (#106) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#188) | 1.50 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#107) | 0.508 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 41.6% |
| REB / G | 41.4 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 14.8 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 2.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 12.0% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 37.6% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 56.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 77.3% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.