Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | CSUF +500 STMN -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUF +8 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | STMN -7.2 (+15.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.5 (+8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -8.4 (+16.4) | 146.8 (+21.2) | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -6.9 (+14.9) | 146.9 (+21.1) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -6.7 (+14.7) | 147.3 (+20.7) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -6.9 (+14.9) | 150.4 (+17.6) | 31% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 12-4 |
| Home | 10-4 | 14-1 |
| Away | 6-10 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.3 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.2 | 73.1 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#307) | -0.9 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.56 (#337) | -0.49 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.67 (#333) | -1.23 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.385 (#313) | 0.459 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.4% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 21.4% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 27.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 3.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.2% | 57.2% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 23.0% | 12.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.6% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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